tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post1283527423065000719..comments2016-05-05T12:20:58.274-04:00Comments on Cozy Beehive: Some Probability And Statistics On The Individual Time TrialRon Georgehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18394865788996482667noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post-61287346211270192182010-06-08T16:48:32.451-04:002010-06-08T16:48:32.451-04:00I understand you better, but your post-hoc analysi...I understand you better, but your post-hoc analysis is more than just the title. <br /><br />"Alberto Contador Vs Fabian Cancellara As Time Trialists<br /><br />Our last question is the most interesting. So if you're a top pro at the peak of your abilities, what are you chances of ever getting close to Fabian Cancellara's blitzkrieg results?"<br /><br />The answer is to increase your average power output over 40K. Your distribution of "top pros" includes sprinters (high power output over short period of time), TT specialists and climbers (high Power/weight). <br /><br />If Fabian Cancellara's average power output (or average speed) is: X and Alberto Contador's is X - Y, then you can build _respective_ (normal) distributions for them and then see where their distributions overlap. (Alternatively, confidence intervals work well, too). If you do the same for Fabian and another "Top Pro" cyclist, whom incidentally rides as a domestique for a team, you can see how such distributions do not overlap and hence the domestique has zero chance of winning or coming within % percent of Fabian's time. <br /><br />-Peter<br />P.S. I enjoyed reading your "The Anatomy Of A Cancellara Attack" work.Peterhttp://www.ohreallyoreilly.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post-8897990337349991952010-06-08T15:44:25.418-04:002010-06-08T15:44:25.418-04:00Sorry I titled it wrong. It is not the "Proba...Sorry I titled it wrong. It is not the "Probability of being within 2% of Fabian Cancellara's TT Times at the TDF" but rather a calculation of the 2nd percentile of the distribution. I will change this title.<br /><br />Otherwise, I don't see any flaws .Ronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12256394060474969622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post-36723461830911156732010-06-08T14:15:52.197-04:002010-06-08T14:15:52.197-04:00Nice blog. Sorry to nit pick, but your analysis i...Nice blog. Sorry to nit pick, but your analysis is flawed. It is not using a random sample. <br /><br />Short of Cancellara crashing, I know that I, as a recreational rider, have ZERO chance of coming within 2% of his TT time. There are very few in the peloton that have a comparable sustainable power output as Cancellara.<br /><br />The proper way to calculate the "Probability of being within 2% of Fabian Cancellara's TT Times at the TDF" one would take a sample or recent history of Cancellara's say 40K TT times or average power output for such effort and build an appropriate confidence interval.Peterhttp://www.ohreallyoreilly.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post-78234439621008047322010-06-04T17:17:56.262-04:002010-06-04T17:17:56.262-04:00The main conclusion I find after reading your anal...The main conclusion I find after reading your analysis is that if you want to win the tour of france your time trail skills have to be pretty close to the best time trial rider, mr cancellara. that's why contador, wiggins and evans are there in the top!!! Andy would be the exception though. So for the next tour of france, look for the 3 or 4 fisrt riders in the prologue and ganble some money on them!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post-45943551362512344372009-11-09T22:08:12.255-05:002009-11-09T22:08:12.255-05:00A bit late here but terrific stuff, Ron.
Thanks!A bit late here but terrific stuff, Ron.<br /><br />Thanks!AMRhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06395959850816510923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post-34733653234462919392009-11-05T23:38:34.666-05:002009-11-05T23:38:34.666-05:00Contador is definitely in league to thwart Cancell...Contador is definitely in league to thwart Cancellara. He just needs to mature as a time trialist but considering he has overall GC plans, I doubt he would give one discipline so much undue attention. Definitely two of the best athletes in pro cycling of today.Bike_Boyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16268869622833968439noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post-86971059033987172572009-11-05T22:24:34.344-05:002009-11-05T22:24:34.344-05:00Yeah damn the Tour de France. Go win the bucks hah...Yeah damn the Tour de France. Go win the bucks hahaRonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18394865788996482667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13887692.post-73828519758272579562009-11-05T19:32:01.438-05:002009-11-05T19:32:01.438-05:00I hear there's a 1 in 40 chance of winning &qu...I hear there's a 1 in 40 chance of winning "Mega Millions" http://www.encyclopediabranigan.com/2009/04/there-is-1-in-40-chance-of-winning-with.html <br /><br />:)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com